Thursday, April 30, 2009

Q: Do I need an agent to sell my book proposal?

A: It depends.

This is almost like me asking you if I need a realtor to sell my house. Okay, in light of the current housing market, that might not be a very nice parallel. But then again, a quick look at the publishing industry might make that comparison even more apt. But back to the question and topic.
In the "old days" of publishing, let's say prior to 1990, there was a common publishing phrase that referred to an unsolicited manuscript that was sent to a publisher as something that "came in over the transom." (A transom is literally a hinged window over a door. Think of the book return slot at a library.) In other words, a writer sent in his or her manuscript to a mail drop, which then ended up in one of several 4-foot high stacks in a junior editor's office, and which after six or seven months of collecting dust was either rejected with a form letter - or voila, it got discovered and published. One way many publishing companies handled submissions that came over the transom was to hire college interns to sift through hundreds or thousands of manuscripts over summer break and separate the winners from the losers.

Many publishers were still leery of agents in the mid-90s. (Many still are.) Since acquisitions is the lifeblood of publishing, they preferred to take the initiative and go find someone with a marketing platform to promote their own work; if that person couldn't write, the publisher would help them write it with a ghost writer or collaborator. If an author didn't have a platform but had exceptional verifiable credentials - for example a professor at a university with a reputation for expertise in a particular discipline - the publisher would still take the initiative. Both of these and many other scenarios still happen all the time but even when the publisher is responsible for basic ideation, it is more common to work deals through an agent. And next to never over the transom.

The worry for publishers back in the "old days" was that once an agent was involved, he or she would demand too much money up front as an advance and too much in royalty rates and thus damage the economies of publishing. (Okay, the publishers were right on this point for many deals.) But even with that concern, sometime in the mid and late 90s, agents went from being a luxury for big name authors who wanted to sell projects to one of the big publishing companies, to a near necessity for almost all writers interested in placing a project with almost any size publishing house.

Today, many publishers will no longer receive unsolicited manuscripts from authors. They prefer and require agent involvement. In a sense, the agent, for many publishing companies, has become a way to streamline the acquisitions process - and maybe even reduce head count. (In other words, the agent has become the primary acquisitions editor for a lot of publishers.) The hardcore, full time, certified agent - and yes, there are many former editors and other publishing staffers who moonlight at agenting - earns his or her commission (more often 15%, up from 10% even a decade ago), along with a trustworthy reputation that opens doors to a variety of acquisitions editors and publishers, by carefully screening authors and projects and vouching to the publisher that the author can deliver both great material and can help market it.

What does this mean for the aspiring author? It means that finding an agent who will represent your work can feel - and be - as hard as selling the project.

So, do you need an agent? The answer is YES, if ...

1. You don't have inside connections with one or more publishers who are already disposed to buying a project from you.

2. You haven't been approached by a publisher to write a project, which is a dream come true for anyone who has toiled with speculative work (you still might be better off with an agent if the deal seems fishy in some way).

3. You don't have a large established platform (connection to a well defined audience that is motivated to buy from you) whereby you can guarantee a certain number of sales. (Some publishers will make a deal with this kind of author if the author commits to buying X number of copies, which becomes part of the contract. Some authors, particularly if they speak to large audiences, will then determine that they'll make more money self-publishing.)

4. You want to be with a larger publisher (not necessarily the right option for every author or project) that will present your work to bookstores and other retailers. (I have a friend who has sold more than 1 million copies of his self-published book. He still feels disatisfaction because the books he did with big time publishers did not do well in the trade.)

5. You have a big idea and a big audience that loves you, but don't know the first thing about book publishing and aren't really fond of writing.

That list isn't close to being exhaustive and even if you can turn each point around and answer it conversely, you still may not need or want an agent. And acquiring the services of a well connected agent who really believes in your work is no guarantee that your work will be purchased by a publisher at all, much less at terms that feel reasonable to you. Plus, today there are many more professional quality self-publishing options available to the aspiring author. You can even go on the internet and typset and design a cover for your own book with a service like lulu.com.

So do you need an agent? Unless you have the ways and means to sell a self-published work or have incredible connections within the publishing community, the answer is probably yes. I'd wish you well in finding the right agent for you - but I'll save that for another post!

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Q: Why won't a publisher read my manuscript in a timely fashion?!

A: A better question might be this: Why should he or she give two or three hours in his or busy schedule to pore over what you've written?

Let's start with the simple reality that most of the publishing world is situated in a low demand, high supply section of the supply-demand curve. That means publishers must deal with the fact that we publish more books than there are interested readers. You, the writer, are likewise part of a supply group that is sending more manuscripts than a publisher has demand for in his or her world of limited open slots.


Note that the third variable in the SD Curve is Price. High supply + low demand = low price. Price, for you the aspiring author, is the publisher's motivation to read your manuscript. Don't get mad that the price you can charge is low, just understand it and do what you can to change something on the graph. Incidentally, I know a lot of publishers and acquisitions editors who are very nice people and would love nothing more than to encourage and help you. Those who spend a lot of time doing this, however, tend to be ex-publishers and ex-acquisitions editors. It doesn't pay the bills nor justify the salary.

Publishers aren't looking for more manuscripts to review but we've got to publish something, so unless we have a strong cadre of proven authors signed to long term deals we do want to read the right ones. (See my blog on whether you need an agent to round this discussion out.) What makes a manuscript the right manuscript? Bottom line: It offers something unique and compelling to a well defined audience. If you can't articulate in a sentence or two what makes your book special for a group of readers that the publisher has some history or means of reaching, then an acquisition specialist probably won't sort through your material to develop your "elevator speech" for you. Let's break down the components of the sentence that is set in bold face.

1. Articulate: Is your sales pitch as well articulated as your manuscript? (Both are well written, right?)

2. In a sentence or two: When you skim book shelves or magazine contents or advertisements or any other message, how long do you give it to catch your attention? Five seconds? I doubt it. Why would you expect a publisher to be any different than you, particularly since he or she knows that the finished book will have the same requirement to nab attention in a second or two put on it by consumers. Hint: There's something that goes on the cover of a book that serves as the best sales pitch available. (I'll address titling and subtitling in a future blog.)

3. What makes your book special: If you have quoted someone elses work in every chapter, there's a good chance your book is not needed. If you haven't created something with a new angle, a new discovery, a new application, a new character, a new anything that is important and compelling - why bother?

4. For a group of readers: Chances are your book idea will not appeal to everybody. So bold assertions that millions will want to pick up this book is a real turn off and indication you haven't thought through who will actually take the time to look your book over and purchase it. Better to be honest about the size of the group that your book appeals to.

5. That the publisher has some history or means of reaching: Textbook publishers don't effectively market to fiction readers and fiction publishers don't do a good job of marketing to preachers and ministry publishers don't tend to reach romance enthusiasts and so on! When you determine who to send your manuscript to, make sure that the publisher has published comparable titles.

This Q/A is as philosophical as it is practical. It's about helping you measure your expectations and understand why the process is frustrating without getting to frustrated. I'll come back to the major points of a good book publishing proposal (because whether or not you hire an agent, you're going to be the one who has to write it!), which will have significant overlap.

Okay, back on topic. Why won't a publisher just read your manuscript and proposal? Don't blame him or her. You haven't yet articulated a concise and compelling reason to do so.

Q: My book has not sold very many copies. Can I get rights back based on poor sales performance?

A. Not without some help. Take a look at your publishing agreement to see if there are sales performance requirements written into the terms. But if you don't find a suitable condition, you can still ask your publisher nicely.

Most publishing agreements have several provisions that allow you to get your publishing rights back.

First, most agreements have a time frame within which the publisher must publish your work after

Monday, April 27, 2009

Q: Will e-books ruin book publishing?

A: Of course not.

Okay, let me qualify that. If by ruin you mean "bring an end to" and if by book publishing you mean the "careful and professional preparation and dissemination of long form intellectual property expressed in words" then I stick by my answer and say, of course not.

Now if by book publishing you mean the above definition but specifically and predominantly in a paper, ink, and binding medium, then I guess the answer is possibly. Maybe the readers of the world will gradually or spontaneously decide that we don't need to kill any more trees and that electronic dissemination and acquisition is the only way to go. First, I would say that in the world of book publishing content is king and packaging secondary - a tough admission from someone who makes a living as a gift book publisher. So if paper, ink, and binding some day go away, I would simply say, no big deal. I don't think that's going to happen any time soon as the latest research (the PubTrack program from Bowker) indicates that 82% of Americans - who represent one third of the book publishing market - still prefer printed books exclusively.

In his book Business At the Speed of Thought Bill Gates asserted that we tend to overestimate the amount of change new technology will cause in its first two years but underestimate the amount of change that will occur in the next five years. How long has Amazon had the Kindle and Sony its e-book reader in the market? If Gates was right then it will be 2012 or 2013 before we have a pretty good idea where e-books are going.

Now if by book publishing your definition is closer to "long form intellectual property expressed in words" no matter what media is used to distribute the material then I would say for that to come to an end some entirely different dynamics other than an e-book reader would have to be involved. Mike Hyatt, CEO of Thomas Nelson and my boss, raised the question of what the Internet is doing to our brains in his blog, particularly in relation to its impact on long form reading. He cites Nicholas Carr's article in the Atlantic Monthly, "Is Google Making Us Stupid?" Carr's observation is that as the Internet has become his universal medium, concentrating on longer pieces for more than a couple of pages has become increasingly difficult. Carr says:
I’m not the only one. When I mention my troubles with reading to friends and acquaintances—literary types, most of them—many say they’re having similar experiences. The more they use the Web, the more they have to fight to stay focused on long pieces of writing.

Since an e-book, at least in its most popular hardware expressions, is designed to essentially look, feel, and behave like a a paper, print, and binding book, you can't blame it for any for any widespread impact on people's ability to apprehend long form content just because it's in a digital format.

Again, citing the most up-to-date research from Bowker's PubTrack data, in 2007, 164 million Americans over the age of 13, about 75% of the population with discretionary spending power, purchased at least one book. Book consumption is greater with age but still relatively constant. And for those who assert that junior readers simply won't read unless the content is wrapped up in a digital sight, sound, and interactive experience, I'd simply point to the Harry Potter phenomenon where seven- and eight-year-old kids could suddenly read 800-page books! There is an ongoing voracious appetite for books across ages and within all the niches of the human marketplace. And America won't always account for one-third of all book consumption.

So will e-books ruin book publishing? Absolutely not. Will they change book publishing? Over time, most likely, but not in its essence.

So book publishing, a medium brought to the masses by Johannes Gutenberg through his invention of mechanical printing almost 600 years ago, is safe for at least another millennium?

Now that's an entirely different question! Give me a sec and I'll see if I can google an answer!

Q: What are subrights?

A: In the future, maybe everything!

Okay, first let's answer the question based on what subrights commonly mean in the publishing industry NOW.

Subrights are the permission to use the content from the primary license the publisher has purchased (almost always the book) in subsidiary forms. When a publisher buys the right to publish your book, that company usually secures all subsidiary rights in the deal. This allows him or her to exploit these secondary rights him or herself, or more commonly to sell these rights to others to create new products that disseminate the content and generate new revenue streams.

Common subrights are film and video rights, audio books, workbooks, gift books, e-books, translations, book club editions, international editions, commercial rights, gift products, and according to the contract language of many publishers, any medium that now exists or that will exist in the future in the universe. In other words, anything that can house your words.

The basic reasons that publishers secure subrights, the right to re-license what you've sold to them, are:

a. Most book publishers, not surprising, are very good at creating books, but also not surprising, not as good at creating other products that expand the reach of the content, like motivational coffee mugs or Lithuanian translations or motion pictures. But they do have staff or have contract workers who can find companies that do those things very well.

b. Since the publisher invests significant money into taking a book to market, with no guarantee that the book will be profitable, his or her default position is to reserve all opportunities available to earn a return on that investment.

So does the publisher get all the money? Not unless you signed a bad deal. The standard contract terms is for publisher and author to split the proceeds.

Why should I give the publisher all these rights? Don't if you don't have to. But unless your name is Stephen King or John Grisham, it's probably going to be a deal breaker for the publisher. And if you have no history of selling subsidiary rights, why hold onto them? If you have a compelling argument on why you can outperform the publisher - i.e. Ridley Scott has already bought an option on the screenplay adaptation of our work - or you know your publisher doesn't attend international events and has never sold a translation right - or your uncle owns a direct mail book club - then fight for them! If you think you can outperform the publisher, try to negotiate a time limit for the publisher to have exclusive right to sell subrights to your work - or counter his or her offer with terms that give you a bigger share of the subrights revenue if you generate the sale.

How important are subrights? For many publishers, their core business, creating books, is a break even proposition; profits come from subrights. For the most successful authors, creating a book opens up opportunities for many other ways to express their content, while making more money and promoting sales of the original license, the book.

Can subrights hurt? Sure. If you've written a motivational classic and the publisher sells quotes to an employee award company that makes really ugly plaques with your name on every single one of them, then yes, it can hurt you. If the sell of subrights doesn't generate new business but only replaces what the publisher would have sold anyway (cannibalization), then there's really no benefit.

With the proliferation of e-books in particular, the reality is that subrights might soon be the only thing you, an author, sells. In other words, the primary product will be the content and any expression of it will be the sublicense, including the veritable paper and ink book, which may or may not be necessary to distribute the content.

That's undoubtedly a long ways off. Or is it?

Oprah Winfrey just reported that the Amazon Kindle is now her favorite "gadget". That means the future might be closer than you think!

Q: How is the publishing industry impacted by a struggling economy?

A: I can only answer on the basis of today, and on November 25, 2008 (*), the answer is that the publishing industry has indeed been impacted negatively and at least in equal measure to the overall economy!

The old axiom was that publishing was recession proof - especially religious publishing. Why? In the overall scheme of the economy (and people's pocketbooks) books are a relatively inexpensive form of entertainment, best partaken of at home, which saves gas and eat-out money. In the case of religious publishing, the prevailing wisdom has been that when the economy is good "people play" but when it's bad "people pray!"

But in this maybe-post-probably-ongoing-subprime-American-automaker-melt-down-government-bail-out-required economic downturn, sales are not good for retailers or publishers. The list of retail chains reporting same-store declines is as long as the list of ... well, uh, retail chains. The only reliable statistics available on the health of independent retailers is the number that are closing on a weekly basis. Iconic flagship book retailer, Barnes & Noble, reports glum 3rd quarter results and 4th quarter projections:

B&N Sales Sink; Sees Gloomy Holiday
by Jim Milliot -- Publishers Weekly, 11/20/2008 6:19:00 AM

The news was about as bad as it could be from Barnes & Noble. For the third quarter ended November 1, total sales fell 4.4%, to $1.1 billion, with sales through its bookstores down by the same 4.4%. Same store sales fell 7.4%. Sales at Barnes & Noble.com rose 2%, to $109 million. Moreover, the nation’s largest bookstore chain predicted that--based on the negative sales trend to date--same store sales in the fourth quarter will fall 6% to 9%. Earlier this month, B&N chairman Len Riggio warned employees in a memo that the company was bracing for a terrible holiday season.


Books-A-Million, which is strongest in the Bible Belt fared even worse.

BAM Comps Drop Nearly 10%
by Jim Milliot -- Publishers Weekly, 11/21/2008 2:13:00 PM

The drumbeat of bad news from the nation’s bookstore chains continued Friday with Books-A-Million reporting that total revenue dropped 5.7% in the third quarter ended November 1, to $110.9 million. Comparable store sales tumbled 9.9%, the “weakest comparable store sales in many years,” said CEO Sandy Cochran. With the sales decline, BAM’s loss deepened to $2.2 million in the quarter compared to a loss of $555,000 in last year’s third period.

The sales decline was felt in most segments, Cochran said, with bargain books, gifts, and the teen categories among the few areas where business was up. A decline in customer traffic plus a cost conscious consumer where blamed for the poor results. BAM is focused on “controlling costs, managing inventory and preparing for the holiday season,” Cochran said.

While Cochran said the holiday publishing schedule is a good one, she sees few signs indicating that the difficult marketplace will shift anytime soon. For the first nine months of the year, revenue was down 4.8%, to $349.2 million, and the company had a loss of $635,000 compared to earnings of $4.6 million in the same period last year. Comp sales for the nine months were off 8.0%


Perhaps the most dramatic announcement came from the supply side of the industry with the news that literary giant Houghton Mifflin was putting a hold on acquisitions - akin to a fish saying that they might spend a year away from the water.

HMH Places "Temporary" Halt on Acquisitions
By Rachel Deahl -- Publishers Weekly, 11/24/2008 12:54:00 PM

It’s been clear for months that it will be a not-so-merry holiday season for publishers, but at least one house has gone so far as to halt acquisitions. PW has learned that Houghton Mifflin Harcourt has asked its editors to stop buying books.

Josef Blumenfeld, v-p of communications for HMH, confirmed that the publisher has “temporarily stopped acquiring manuscripts” across its trade and reference divisions. The directive was given verbally to a handful of executives and, according to Blumenfeld, is “not a permanent change.” Blumenfeld, who hedged on when the ban might be lifted, said that the right project could still go to the editorial review board. He also maintained that the the decision is less about taking drastic measures than conducting good business.

“In this case, it’s a symbol of doing things smarter; it’s not an indicator of the end of literature,” he said. “We have turned off the spigot, but we have a very robust pipeline.” The action by the highly leveraged HMH may also be as much about the company's need to cut costs in a tight credit market.as about the current economic slowdown.


What's it mean for you as author or aspiring author?

If your heart is set on publishing with a traditional publishing house of note, the news isn't great. My own company, Thomas Nelson, in anticipation of emerging economic woes, cut the number of titles being published almost in half as of March 2008. As a publisher I always find it more fun to do books than to not do books, but unquestionably, we were ahead of the curve.

If you are able to see publishing not just in terms of a paper and ink product with a particular logo or name on the spine - and are open to the array of self- and micro-publishing options available today - then this is just one more confirmation to go for it now rather than wait for your deal to sail in!

* Mark is in the process of moving posts from Book Publishing Q & A to his main blog site. This topic was covered months ago, though the news is about the same as of April 27, 2009. I'll update economic metrics in the near future.

Q: Why does it take so long for a publisher to publish a manuscript once they've bought it?

A: For traditional trade publishers, schedules are built around the selling cycle of key account retailers.

Start backwards. Pretend your book hits the shelves at Barnes & Noble on September 5 - I'm singling out B&N for purpose of example only. Why did it take a year to get there? (And yes, publishers would prefer to have a full year from the point when they purchase a manuscript from an agent until the time it hits the shelf.)

Month 12
To have a book on the shelf on September 5, B&N probably needs the book to start delivering to their distribution centers on August 5. It will take them a week or so to get it organized to ship to their 700-something stores; another week or so for it to arrive at all locations; and the next two weeks for local stores to get on the shelf. Remember, they have only so many inches of book shelves dedicated to your book's category, so it's likely that some slow-selling titles are getting removed from shelves and returned to publishers. If you have a real, bona fide marketing plan, you now do your thing this month and in the next few months. Pray that the retail buyers believed the sales person who told them what the marketing plan would be so that books are in the market when you tell people about it on radio interviews and internet blog tours.

Months 10-11
Printer ready files of your book were sent to the printer. The printer needs a week or two for the make-ready process. They will have ripped 'blues' of interiors and covers that were sent to publisher for approval. They were probably forwarded to you as well - or at least a pdf file was emailed to you to read over. It takes each of you a week to do your final quality checks. It can sit a week or two in a long line of projects before it hits the print line and it might even get bumped because a new novel by Stephanie Meyers or John Grisham is selling so fast that the printer gave your spot in line to another publisher. (Sad to say but true - it happens.) It takes another week or two for the book to get shipped to your publisher's warehouse or distribution center and yes, it takes them a week or two to ship it to B&N.

Months 8-9
You might find out that your editor is now assigning you to a copy editor. A copy editor gets into the nuts and bolts of grammar and syntax and punctuation. You get an edited chapter every day or two and you are given 24 to 36 hours to respond! Not fun. Finally, in week 7, you see a final cover; you like it better; you might love it; you might have Exhibit A when you explain 16 months later to your family and friends why your book really didn't sell. You get a final edited manuscript and are told you have three business days to make any final changes. A week later you get a typeset copy of the book. It's amazing how much better your material reads when it is professionally typeset. You have another three business days to mark any mistakes or changes.

Months 6-7
You don't hear much the first three weeks but the publishing team is very busy getting sales and marketing tools prepared for sales conference. In week four you get a cover you don't like. You protest. You might even have won the argument but you have a friend who comes up with an even worse cover and you tell the publishing team how much you like it because you had more of a say in it, ruining your credibility. The publisher finally says that catalog drop dead date is here and they'll have to use what they've got but they'll consider revising prior to publication. An improved version gets used with the sales sheet. You wonder why a publisher does a catalog if the real presentation is done with a sales sheet. He or she doesn't know why either. In addition to key account presentations, your manuscript is sent to trade and consumer outlets by the publicist. We'll come back to this time period later.

Month 5
No one is real happy with the state of the manuscript but someone from the marketing department needs to write catalog copy and uses what they have. Another marketing person calls to get your list of influencers who need a pre-publication manuscript. You tell them that it's not ready to be read by reviewers but the marketing person explains that everyone in the publishing industry understands it won't be a final edited copy.

Month 4
In the second week of this month you'll get a long conciliatory call from your editor with a list of things you need to rewrite. You have two weeks to get everything done.

Month 3
You turn in your manuscript and hear nothing. You start calling the editor who has been assigned to you and don't hear back. After a couple weeks of this you call your agent. Your agent calls the publisher. The publisher assures him or her that you'll hear from your editor in just a couple more days. Six weeks later an assistant calls and sends an email and lets you know that you'll hear from your editor in the next couple days.

Months 1-2
It takes the whole month for you to get a first draft of your contract, which is probably 13 to 15 pages long and is organized with the logic and layout of a 3,000 square foot house that started out as a single-wide trailer. You have a bunch of questions that your agent will patiently cover with you. Your agent wants to impress you with his or her knowledge of arcane publishing nuances and negotiating acumen so he or she will start insisting on contract changes. After a couple of center lane head-on chicken rushes, the parties will finally settle on the few things that actually have to do with business. Your agent will tell you the story and you'll be impressed.

Bottom line, go back and look at months 6 and 7. This is what is driving the schedule. Reviewers need their review copies and this is when retail accounts, like B&N, Lifeway, Borders, Family Christian, Wal-Mart (and their book buying distributors A-Merch and Treat), BooksaMillion, Mardells, and others expect (and demand) publishers to present new lists. There are three main selling seasons. Fall books (August through December release) need to be presented by March; Spring books (January through April releases) need to be presented by August; Summer books (May through July) need to be presented by the middle of November.

Are there exceptions? Yes. They are called 'drop ins' and that works great with big, time-sensitive book concepts. Emergency land a plane in the Hudson River and save a couple hundred lives as the captain of an airline and be assured someone can and desperately wants to have your book in the market in the next two months. But there needs there to be a compelling reason to rush to press. Otherwise, you can do a lot more harm than good and seriously damage your sales.

Maybe this long-winded A to your Q will make the wait for your book to reach the market seem more bearable!

Q: How accurate are bestseller lists?

A: Not very.

But that doesn't mean they aren't important. They are great for publicity and will probably help generate more sales. Many people peruse the various lists to help them determine what to pick up next. They are fabulous for an author's ego. Admit it, wouldn't you like to have the tag New York Times Bestselling Author under your name every time you published a book? All it takes is once!

Why aren't they accurate?

Book publishers don't use a upc code on the back of their books. Why? There is an ancient custom that retailers should be able to set their own prices. Instead most publishers use an ISBN number and code. Some use nothing at all. That means a whole new reporting system is needed to gather point-of-purchase data. The biggest collector of this data is Nielson's BookScan system - modelled after music industry's SoundScan.

But not all retailers feed their data to BookScan and not all bestseller lists use BookScan anyway. The New York Times has the most prestigious list, which is based on several large chains, a number of independent booksellers, and select mass market accounts. USA Today and the Wall Street Journal employ similar methods of sampling, including judicious use of BookScan. Ditto Publisher's Weekly. However, many large booksellers -like Sams and a number of other mass market retail chains, schools, Christian bookstores, rackjobbers, e-books, and high volume tabletop display marketers - don't provide their data to BookScan. The largest Christian retail chain doesn't even provide its data to the CBA (Christian Booksellers Association) bestseller list. One wouldn't, of course, expect the lists to account for other 'special markets' including direct sales nor organizational and author purchases. The good news is that Amazon sales are now included with BookScan - but several of the lists resisted using Amazon's sales until the last few years.

What percentage of book sales are reflected on bestseller lists? No one knows for sure based on all the above reasons. I've heard estimates ranging from 30% to 50%. Anecdotally, one author friend has now sold three million copies of a single book. Of those, 100 thousand have sold in traditional book selling settings and the other 2.9 million have sold direct to consumer, business to business, or through back-of-room sales when he speaks.

Because bestseller lists do create positive publicity and sales momentum there are more than a few occasions when authors and publishers have attempted to manipulate their book's placement on the lists. For example, back when it was harder to track single store sales, an author or agent might order the five or ten or twenty or thirty thousand copies of a new book needed for speaking engagements through a single bookstore to 'force' a book onto the list. I'm sure this has helped ongoing sales just for the fact that accounts would see the book show up on a list and order more store copies. But point-of-purchase data, at least within a chain, is now sophisticated enough to spot this as an anomaly, not a trend. The New York Times at least used to put a dagger symbol next to books that had large bulk orders. (Do they still do that?)

There is a publisher axiom that says you can get a book on any bestsellers list through marketing but in order for it to stay on the list it has to be a great book. Longevity of a book on various bestseller lists is almost always an indicator that the book has real 'legs'. Or, in the case of books that sell hundreds of thousands or even millions of units and never show up on a list, they either need to be great or the author needs to have a great platform for moving product.

So bestseller lists are important indicators of what's happening in major swatches of the book selling environment but they have information gaps in that environment and don't even attempt to measure what's happening in special markets, so they can't tell the whole story of which books sell most.

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

A father and son push a shopping cart along a broken concrete highway. The sky and landscape are gray and desolate. Nuclear holocaust? We can assume but are never told. Father remembers what it was like before. The son has known only this world of ash and danger and survival. What happened to the father's wife and son's mother? We think we know but even that is left to the imagination.

As father and son head for the coast - we don't know why - they carry scavenged food, anything they can find for warmth, and a handgun. The rule is there must always be two bullets left. We find out why when they almost fall into a trap at what seems to be a deserted farmhouse.

Bleak. Despairing. Sparse. And yet The Road is a story of love and faith.

This is a road and journey I highly recommend.

I read The Road before Oprah (along with the people who made the movie No Country for Old Men) took Cormac McCarthy mainstream. But I must confess in my years of reading and spending time in the book publishing industry, I somehow missed McCarthy as a brutal, unrelenting force in American fiction. I did go back and read a number of his other works, including Blood Meridian - I agree that it is his true classic (the portrait he draws of the Devil in human flesh in the last scene is as terrifying as anything you read from Dante) but I'll save that for another post.

The Man Who Would Be King: The First American in Afghanistan by Ben Macintyre

I loved the Michael Caine and Sean Connery movie, The Man Who Would Be King, that came out when I was in high school. The John Huston film was nominated for four Academy Awards. Christopher Plummer played the role of a young journalist by the name of Rudyard Kipling - and the film was based on the Kipling's short story by the same name.

But who knew that Kipling's literary bon mot was inspired by a true story - and that truth truly is stranger than fiction?

In 1989, Ben Macintyre was sent to Afghanistan to cover the final stages of the 10 year war between the Soviets and the CIA-backed Mujahideen guerrillas. While there he read Kipling's tale of Daniel Dravot (written in 1888 but looking back to the middle of the Victorian Age, the 1820s and 30s), who made it to the heart of Afghanistan disguised as a Muslim holy man to become king of a fierce tribal empire. It was several years later, while combing through stacks of books in the British Library that Macintyre first discovered the name of a man who "reputedly inspired Rudyard Kipling's story, 'The Man Who Would Be King.'"

So began Macintyre's search for an elusive footnote in history - all his papers were assumed to have been destroyed in a house fire in 1929 - that culminated in The Man Who Would Be King, a fascinating slice of history that is relevant to today's most pressing geopolitical hotspot. Following clues that led him from Britain's war archives to the Punjab, San Francisco, and Pennsylvania, Macintyre was finally able to find a box hidden away in the basement of the archives in a tiny U.S. museum of this mysterious man's birthplace. At the bottom of the box was a "document, written in Persian and stamped with an intricately beautiful oval seal: a treaty, 170 years old, forged between an Afghan prince and the man who would be king."

The first American in Afghanistan had many titles: Prince of Ghor, Paramount Chief of the Hazarajat, Lord of Kurram, personal surgeon to Maharaja Ranjit Singh of the Five Rivers, King of Afghanistan ... and many others. His highness Halan Sahib - who in 1839, enthroned on a bull elephant, raised his standard and made claim to the Hindu Kush - was known back home in Chester County, Pennsylvania, as Josiah Harlan. The man who followed Alexander the Great's winding mountain path 21 centuries later and led an army made up of Afghan Pathans, Persian Qizilibash, Hindus, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Hazaras who were descendents of the Mongolian Hordes, a pacifist Quaker of Chester County, Pennsylvania.

If you like history, biographies, and tales that seem too fanciful to be true, you'll love The Man Would Be King.





Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card

I like Science Fiction just fine but must not love it because there have been many years I don't read even a single SciFi title. I had read a few of the standards over the years without much prompting and recommend them all - Frank Herbert's Dune Series, Philip Dick's Valis Trilogy and Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (became the movie Bladerunner), Asimov's I, Robot, Ray Bradburry's Farenheit 451, Robert Heinlein's The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, Arthur Clarke's 2001: Space Odyssey, C.S. Lewis's Out of the Silent Planet trilogy, and I'm sure others.

My son Merrick introduced me to Orson Scott Card and his child genius Andrew Wiggin - Ender. A slow start - probably because of my own low expectations - and an ending that was so unexpected that it made me want to read the book again. Immediately. I'll leave it at that so I don't even stray towards a spoiler. My reading of preferred genres goes in streaks I admit, but I devoured all the books in Card's series as quickly as I could get to them: Speaker for the Dead, Xenocide, Children of the Mind, Ender's Shadow, Shadow of the Hegemon, and I'm sure I'm leaving something out. (Thanks Merrick!)

Ender grows up in a home with a cruel older brother, Peter, and the love of his life, Valentine, his older sister, the only one who doesn't seem to resent his brilliance. Card does have an ability to see the future - his description of communication over the Internet before Al Gore had the thing really up and going is amazing - and in a world of overpopulation Ender wasn't even legally allowed to be born. Peter and Valentine are both eligible to be selected for Battle School but Peter's anger turns to lethal hatred when it is Ender who is chosen to train as a fighter to repel a hostile alien forces's next invasion.

My description may make this sound trite but the psychological, moral, and physical conflicts are brilliant and emotionally exquisite. Off topic: Did 'they' ever make the Ender movie? I saw ads so I'm sure they did. Was it any good?

Like Frank Herbert in the Dune books, as you read through Card's series you find an author who doesn't just create other settings or even worlds - but whole cosmologies complete with religions, races, histories, and complex moral dilemmas, including definitions of the soul and consciousness. (Yes, there are some slow sections, particularly in Xenocide, but the whole experience is more than satisfactory.)

Just a note or two about Card. He is a descendent of Brigham Young and graduated from BYU and the University of Utah, and did doctoral work at Notre Dame. He served as a missionary for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. While passing through Salt Lake City on a Delta flight I saw that he has also written the novels Sarah, Rebekah, and Rachel and Leah, which are known as the Women from Genesis Series. The Internet says he lives in North Carolina now. I don't know anything about his ongoing personal religious life but would simply observe that as with other author's from a high identity religious background, there is a discipline and training of thought that seems to spawn a counter-intuitive imaginative freedom with the ability to dream up huge, comprehensive, and interconnected realities as he's done in his Andrew Wiggin novels.

Friday, April 17, 2009

faith, money, the GOP, and marriage

What makes for a great marriage? I'm sure the usual suspects of commitment, respect, shared values, mutual attraction, and love are still the major ingredients that blend together to create a great love story. But without regard for the quality of the union, what makes for a marriage that lasts?

A recent Barna Group study (March 31, 2008) indicates:

* 78% of U.S. adults have been married at least once and 33% of those have been divorced at least once
* 84% of born-again Christian adults have tied the knot
* 74% of people aligned with non-Christian faiths
* 65% of atheists and agnostics

Who has the highest divorce rates?

* 39% of downscale adults
* 38% of Baby Boomers
* 38% of those aligned with a non-Christian faith
* 36% of African-Americans
* 37% of people who define themselves to be socially and politically liberal

The lowest likelihood of divorce?

* 28% of Catholics
* 26% of Evangelicals
* 22% of upscale adults
* 28% of those who deem themselves socially and politically conservative

The difference between those most likely and least likely to divorce is 17 points and a 45% swing, which is significant. But without running cross-tabulations and looking at these numbers over time it's impossible to draw any rational or emperical conclusions.

But that's never stopped me before!

My modest suggestion for giving your marriage a stimulus package is more focus on your career and your faith - and strongly consider voting Republican in the next election.